© MMXX V.1.0.1
by Morley Evans
FORECASTING
especially if it’s about the future!
The data used in a model may not be the same in the future. So, while a model may "predict" the past accurately, it will not forecast the future if data changes. Mathematical economic models are worthless because human action constantly changes. Weather forecasts are not accurate more than a few days from the present. That is why "long-range" forecasts predict weather only ten days forward, at most. Global climate forecasts are completely inaccurate and worthless. Pseudo-science makes good political rhetoric which demagogues find useful to bamboozle the booboisie.
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